The summer of 2007 has been anything but normal in regard to weather across the Chinese cotton belt. The severity of the heat, rain and storms is unusual, even by the normal volatility standards of China.

In the North China Plain, the drought of earlier in the season has given way to a series of violent storms since early July. Over the past several days, the important provinces of Henan, Hebei and parts of Shandong have been hit by unusually violent storms. So far in the North China Plain, the storms appear to have missed many of the largest cotton-growing areas. Southern Henan Province has been very hard hit. In the Fugou area, prolonged rain has prevailed over the region, causing boll shed and wilt on approximately 10 percent of the surveyed acreage. Boll counts in the area, however, were only 50 percent of last year in a late July survey. In Nanyang, wilt is also reported, along with boll shed as a result of the excessive rain and insufficient sunshine.

For now, the large cotton areas to the north in Shandong appear to be continuing to develop well, but will be impacted by a major rain event later this week. In the very important Dezhou area, yields equal to or above last season continue to be expected. The first harvest will begin in approximately 45 days. The cotton belt of southern Hebei has been hit by heavy rain in recent days, and its impact is still being surveyed. The southern Chinese cotton belt is experiencing more volatility and violent storms, with this area being hit by the dual forces of rain and heat. In Shanghai, temperatures on July 29 hit a record of 39.6 degrees Celsius or 103.3 degrees Fahrenheit. During the weekend of July 28 - 29, a major rain and hailstorm hit parts of Anhui Province. A 100-meter section of a dam in Fengtai County collapsed as the flooded Huaihe River hit the area. The impact on the cotton crop in Anhui has been limited by the fact that a small amount of cotton acreage is planted in the Huaihe River Valley.

Hubei Province was hard hit by rain and hailstorms over the past few days. Flooding is now being reported along the Yangtee River and the Han River, a tributary. The Hubei cotton belt has been wet since mid-July. Cotton fields have been flooded in Jingzhou and Xiaogan. Local estimates suggest a third of the province´s cotton crop has major problems from wilt, flooding and boll rot. The crop in parts of Jiangsu Province is also now in major trouble. In the important cotton-growing area of Dafeng, 95 percent of the crop has been damaged by excessive rain, causing boll shed. The southern provinces of Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang, which are minor cotton-producing regions, are suffering from extreme heat and no rain.

The China cotton crop has been able to recover from excessive July rain and the accompanying boll shed, wilt, etc. in the past when a drier weather pattern emerged in August. If the current wet pattern continues, yields across much of the region will be impacted and crop movement delayed.

Source: globecotnews