The cotton harvest in the North China Plain has been plagued by cool temperatures and wet weather for the past ten or more days. Excessive rain and cool temperatures hit many areas of the cotton belt, including Shandong and Hebei provinces, from the final week of September throughout the entire National Day Holiday week. The region was dry by October 8 - 9, but daily highs were only in the 60 to 69-degree Fahrenheit range or 16 to 21 degrees Celsius. Another brief round of scattered showers is expected to move through the North China Plain on Wednesday, October 10, and then dry weather is forecast through the remainder of the week.

This rain has hurt cotton quality and yield potential, and it is quite evident that yields have been reduced. In Shandong Province, the NCMMS staff was out in the fields. In the province´s important Dongying area, only around 50 percent of the crop was harvested before the rain, with cotton yields left in the field now estimated to decline to 2,250 up 3,000 kilograms per hectare, which compares to pre-rain yield estimates of 3,000 up to 3,750 kilograms. The quality of the crop remaining in the fields has sharply declined -- bolls have mildewed.

Approximately 40 percent of the crop was in the field when rain impacted the Hejian area of Hebei Province, so both quality and yields are expected to sharply decline. In Shanxi, the main cotton area of Linfen was hit by steady rain and very cool weather from September 27 - October 7. This extended period of cold temperatures, rain and lack of sunshine had a very negative impact on final maturity, boll opening and harvest progress. Approximately 35 percent of the potential output is now estimated to have been lost due to rust, dead bolls and poor quality.

It is now expected that North China Plain´s total output will be reduced by 15 to 20 percent as a result of the weather conditions. In addition, the area will produce considerably less volume of middling and above color grade cotton. This deterioration in color grade is coming on top of a problem with high micronaire, while a major high mike problem has evolved as the classing and ginning of the crop accelerates. These conditions are expected to increase the demand for high-grade imports.

Source: globecotnews