Cotton and Wool Outlook: Global Cotton Production and Consumption to Expand in 2011/12 (06/09/2011)

Updated: 6/9/2011 10:45:00 AM

The first U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton forecast for 2011/12 projects growth in both world cotton production and consumption, with production exceeding consumption for the first time in 7 years. Global production is forecast to rise to a record of about 125 million bales, 10 million above 2010/11. The nearly 9-percent growth rate for 2011/12 pushes the anticipated crop nearly 12 million bales above the 5-year average. Cotton production in 2011/12 is forecast to increase in most of the major producing countries, led by India, China, and Pakistan.

World cotton consumption for 2011/12 is projected at 119.5 million bales, 3 million higher than 2010/11 and the largest since 2007/08. Growth similar to the long-term average is supported by improving global economic conditions, cotton product demand in developing countries, and the expectation of a bumper crop. Cotton mill use in 2011/12 is forecast to expand in the major consuming countries, led by China and India.

Global cotton production and consumption

World Cotton Production Forecast at Record High in 2011/12

World cotton production in 2011/12 is forecast at 124.7 million bales, up 9 percent from the previous year, as producers respond to a strong market price for the fiber. If realized, the 2011/12 crop will be biggest on record and the third consecutive annual production increase. Global harvested area is forecast at nearly 36.0 million hectares in 2011/12, a 7-percent increase from a year ago. Global yields in 2011/12 are forecast to increase 2 percent from the preceding year, to 755 kg/ha. Substantial production increases are forecast for China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, and Mexico, which together are expected to account for at least 80 percent of the crop increase.

China´s 2011/12 crop is forecast at 33.0 million bales, up 8 percent from the previous year. Despite farm labor constraints, high input costs, and more favorable Government support for grains, producers in China are expected to respond to prevailing strong cotton prices which remain above the levels obtained a year ago. China´s harvested cotton area in 2011/12 is forecast to expand 7 percent to 5.5 million hectares from a year ago and the yield is forecast at 1,306 kg/ha. India´s

2011/12 production is forecast at 27.0 million bales, a 13-percent increase from a year earlier and the highest crop on record, on the expectation of normal monsoon conditions. India´s 2011/12 cotton area and yield are forecast to increase 8 percent and 5 percent, respectively, to 12.0 million hectares and 490 kg/ha from a year ago. Pakistan is forecast to produce 10.3 million bales in 2011/12, up 18 percent from the previous year in response to high market prices for the fiber and an expected recovery from last year´s flooding. Area and yield in Pakistan are forecast at 3.3 million hectares and 680 kg/ha, up 14 percent and 4 percent, respectively, from a year earlier. Growers in Pakistan are expected to continue the increased use of Bt seed and better fertilizers in 2011/12. Turkey and Mexico are forecast to produce 2.8 million bales and 1.0 million bales in 2011/12, representing an increase of 33 percent and 46 percent, respectively, from the previous year.

Australia´s 2011/12 crop is forecast at 4.25 million bales, a 3-percent decline from a year earlier. Area and yield are forecast at 525,000 hectares and 1,763 kg/ha, down 75,000 hectares (13 percent) and up 166 kg/ha (10 percent) from the preceding year. Brazil is forecast to produce 9.3 million bales in 2011/12, unchanged from the previous year´s crop estimate. Harvested area in Brazil is forecast at a record 1.4 million hectares, up 1 percent from a year earlier and the yield is forecast at 1,446 kg/ha. In the United States, 2011/12 production is forecast at 18.0 million bales, down 100,000 bales (0.6 percent) from a year ago. Harvested area and yield in the United States are forecast at 4.4 million hectares and 897 kg/ha, representing a 1-percent area expansion and a 1-percent yield decline from the previous year.

The African Franc Zone (AFZ) is forecast to produce nearly 3.0 million bales in 2011/12, up 30 percent from a year ago. Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali (the C-4 countries) are forecast to produce 450,000 bales, 900,000 bales, 115,000 bales and 575,000 bales, respectively, together accounting for 68 percent of the African Franc Zone´s 2011/12 crop. Area harvested in Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali is forecast to increase 22 percent, 25 percent, 15 percent, and 25 percent to 220,000 hectares, 500,000 hectares, 115,000 hectares, and 325,000 hectares, respectively, in 2011/12.

World Cotton Trade to Rise in 2011/12

World 2011/12 cotton trade is forecast at 39.9 million bales, up 8 percent from a year ago. Exports in the 2011 marketing year are expected to grow in Australia and Brazil. Exports in India are forecast to remain similar to last season, while U.S. exports are projected lower (fig. 3). Australia is forecast to export 4.3 million bales in 2011/12, up 43 percent from a year ago. Brazil´s 2011/